The UK Property Market – Crystal Ball Gazing
Apr 4th, 2009 | By Les Sheppard | Category: Featured ArticlesWelcome back! Have you made sure you never miss a new property? Subscribe to updates with your best email address in the sidebar to the right.You see everything new at least 48 hours before the crowd!
I found these comments recently on the Ecademy business networking web site (you can view my Profile by clicking here), made by one of the members who is also closely following the UK property market.
This person recently attended a number of events to listen to “futurists” speak. These people tend to think thirty years ahead, and predict world trends, and they come up with some pretty mind-blowing predictions. Some of them that grabbed our attention are:
1. Human life expectancy: the first person to live to be 1000 years old may be 60 today!. In other words, scientists have already discovered ways of dramatically extending human life, and these will start to filter into the mainstream in the coming years.
2. Women will take a more significant role in business and society.
3. China will become the dominant world power over the U.S. of A. within the next few years.
4. By 2030, there will not be any jobs anymore in the way we understand jobs. There will be no such thing as an “employee”. Big businesses will die because they are not able to change and adapt quickly enough. We are entering the era of the entrepreneur and small business where customers decide the value of your brand, not you.
As an addition to this insight, the writer also provided a few predictions on the UK property market. If you can scan the horizon, and see what’s coming, then you can adapt and fine-tune your strategy accordingly. Clearly you should be constantly reviewing your portfolio, feeding back on what works and what doesn’t and embracing change.
1. People are losing interest in city living:
With many large companies making thousands redundant, we expect to see an increase in entrepreneurship and small businesses in the coming years.
These people will most likely be the future of business and they will be using the unlimited potential of the internet to market their products and services. The thing is though, that, because they work on computers, they can live and work anywhere in the world!
This means that interest in living in city centres will decline. After all, you only ever live in a city centre if you need to for commuting reasons, or you like the “swinging” lifestyle.
Out of choice, it seems that the vast majority of people prefer a suburban or coastal lifestyle.
2. Holiday Lets are a great strategy for cash-flow:
As we’ve already heard above, most inward migration is taking place in coastal areas, putting pressure on the supply of housing stock. This means that the intrinsic value of property in these areas should be more stable than property in city centre locations, where there is mass outward migration occurring. This adds weight to buying a coastal property.
And whilst British seaside accommodation has, in the past, left a lot to be desired, there is a definitely new market opening up for quality holiday accommodation.
According to a survey over 1,000 holiday makers by the Holiday Cottages Group, 88 percent put a freshly decorated, modern interior top of their list of priorities, even above price (19 percent). Yet, after asking 1,300 owners of buy to let homes when they last decorated, a third haven’t given their properties a fresh lick of paint for five years, with a few Unhandy Andys not doing any DIY for over a decade.
When it comes to creating the perfect holiday pad, forget about a traditional country cottage with roses around the door, 63 per cent of Brits are dreaming of a cosy yet spacious home with classic, contemporary decor. And over half still like to be beside the seaside (54 percent).
And while owners think a beautiful garden and personal touches like pictures and flowers (27 percent) provide a warm welcome, today’s tech savvy holiday maker wants a house kitted out with the latest plasma telly, wifi and wii (11 percent).
3. People will rent rather than buy:
Earlier this month, a report issued by Abbey revealed that, in most parts of the UK, it is now cheaper for first-time buyers with a deposit of 25 per cent or more to buy a property rather than rent it thanks to recent economic developments.
Indeed, in the north-west of England, such a choice could save the typical first-time buyer almost £80 a month.
However, a new poll carried out by Adfero found that 58 per cent of those questioned said that, if they had to make a move now, they would opt for rental accommodation, with many too wary of possible future fluctuations in the property market to make a commitment of buying.
In addition, a significant number said that, while they feel now is a good time to buy, other financial commitments leave them in no position to take on a mortgage.
One respondent said: “There’s no way I could afford to take on a mortgage at the moment, as much as I would like to.”
Whilst this is not good for house price stability, it is good for cash-flow as the supply of rental property starts to dry up.
4. The rise of the room let:
We believe that in 2009, room lets will become an increasingly attractive housing solution, as it is cost-effective to rent a room in a big house, and have all the utilities included in one monthly payment.
Tenants worrying about their jobs are looking to minimise their rental costs by just renting a room, instead of a whole dwelling.
Plus, house sharers can enjoy a convivial and sociable atmosphere, and enjoy a garden and bigger living space.
If you have a large house that might work in a multi-let format, it may be worth considering changing it over to room lets to increase cash flow. This also minimises risk of void periods as all the rooms will never be empty at one time.
So, is 2009 going to the year of the house-share and will more letting agents wise up to the fact that it could be a lucrative income stream to offer this service? Only time will tell. One thing is for certain, estate agents, as we know them, will not be around this time next year.
5. Only Landlord’s who adopt a professional and business-like approach will survive:
If you treat your BTL properties as a “hobby”, you need to think again. The days of the amateur Landlord and the “armchair investor” are OVER! (We will witness an increase in scams relieving “armchair investors” of large sums of money upfront. It’s YOUR money, so take responsibility of how to invest it. Do not rely on clubs or “schemes”. Bernard Madoff a case in point!)
We actually prefer to call ourselves Landlords rather than investors, as the term Landlord connects us far more with the idea of running a business and providing a service to our valued clients (tenants).
I recently spoke to someone who has 27 flats all in negative cash flow and he told me that he didn’t have a property “business” , he was just dabbling in property as a side-line. Well I had to agree with him that he didn’t have a business. A business is based on cash flow and getting paid at the end of each month for your efforts. Why settle to work for free or even subsidise your portfolio? That is a poor mental attitude, but, more importantly, it is an extremely high risk strategy.
It’s interesting to note that we are being increasingly contacted by people who are disenchanted with how their savings are performing, and are looking to invest money in property for a better return. These could be the green shoots of house price stability, as property starts to be seen as an alternative to banks. The sayings “safe as houses” and “put your money in bricks and mortar” might be clichés, but they are clichés for a reason!
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Hi. I read a few of your other posts and wanted to know if you would be interested in exchanging blogroll links?
Hello, can you please post some more information on this topic? I would like to read more.
Gary,
Thanks for your note. Some more useful posts can be seen at:
http://mydreampad.co.uk/why-98-of-all-property-investors-fail/
http://mydreampad.co.uk/research-the-key-to-property-success/
You could also sign up for our newsletter, where there is a further series of emails that give you even more detail than appears on the site.
All the best!
Les.